The January F&O series ended on a disappointing note for the Nifty 50 as the index declined by 420 points during this period. The monthly expiration date was also the last trading day of the truncated week, making it difficult for the index to sustain near and above the 21,500 mark, which previously served as important support.
However, the index continues to find support in the 21,250-21,150 range. Nifty hit a series low of 21,137, which is acting as a near-term swing low.
With Thursday's decline, Nifty has fallen for three of the past four weeks, dropping more than 800 points from its recent high of 22,124 points. With the bulk of the revenue now clear, focus has returned to the Union Budget to be presented next Thursday. In consideration of the upcoming general election, this will also be an accounting vote rather than the entire budget bill.
Foreign investors remained net sellers during Thursday's trading, but the pace of selling slowed compared to the past few days. Domestic investors continued to be net buyers.
Nagaraj Shetty of HDFC Securities sees the near-term trend of Nifty as weak and unstable. He sees Nifty's resistance remaining around 21,500-21,600 and is aiming for support near 21,100-21,000 levels if there is further downside.
Amol Athawale of Kotak Securities also expects the Nifty to remain weak until it dips below $21,500. Above these levels, the index is likely to head towards the 21,600 level, while below these levels, the index is likely to retreat towards the 21,050 level.
Rupak De of LKP Securities said there was significant call writing on Nifty's 21,500 strike and expected the short-term trend to remain flat in the 21,300-21,500 range. . He added that a decisive break above 21,500 could bring the index back to 21,700-22,000 in the short term.
Nifty Bank has been hit hard by the recent poor performance of Nifty due to declines seen in some of its key constituents such as HDFC Bank and Axis Bank. The index closed below the 45,000 mark on a weekly basis for the first time since November last year. It has now been declining for four consecutive weeks, and has corrected about 4,000 points from its peak of 48,636 points.
Kunal Shah of LKP Securities said 44,500 employees are a critical line of defense for Nifty Bank at the moment. Only by sustaining above these levels can the index return towards the 45,500-46,000 direction in the short term. However, if this support breaks, the index could fall to 44,000-43,500.
Kotak Securities' Athawale said Nifty Bank has formed a bearish candlestick on the weekly chart and is approaching the 200-day moving average. For now, the 44,700 level is the determining factor for the trend, below which a pullback towards 44,000-43,750 is possible.
What does the F&O queue show?
The January series of Nifty 50 ended with a rollover of 77%, with futures adding 5.3% to the open interest on the expiry date. Meanwhile, Nifty Bank's January series ended with an 81% rollover, with futures adding 30.6% to its open interest on expiration. Nifty 50's put-call ratio is now 1.03, up from 0.92 earlier.
Zee Entertainment is exempt from the F&O ban at the start of the new series.
Nifty 50 for callers expiring on February 1st:
The first weekly expiry of the February series, which happens to be the Union Budget day, saw open interest added to the Nifty 50 call strike between 21,400 and 21,600.
| strike |
OI change |
premium |
| 21,400 |
127,800 added |
189.65 |
| 21,500 |
106,700 added |
141.4 |
| 21,600 |
93,200 added |
102.65 |
Nifty 50 on the put side expiring February 1:
On the put side, open interest was added on the Nifty 50 strike between 21,000 and 21,400 towards weekly expiry on Thursday.
| strike |
OI change |
premium |
| 21,400 |
69,300 added |
169.9 |
| 21,300 |
64,700 added |
130.3 |
| 21,000 |
167,500 added |
48.85 |
These stocks added new long positions on Thursday, with both price and open interest increasing.
| stock |
Price change |
OI change |
| Naruko |
3.85% |
220.29% |
| Ballampur Chini |
1.64% |
214.97% |
| oracle financial |
2.16% |
89.04% |
| ACC |
12.05% |
64.89% |
| Samvardana Matherson |
4.64% |
56.09% |
These stocks added new short positions on Thursday. This means that the price has fallen, but the open interest has increased.
| stock |
Price change |
OI change |
| IRCTC |
-0.07% |
106.08% |
| Giant |
-0.15% |
61.48% |
| RBL Bank |
-1.99% |
56.91% |
| tech mahindra |
-6.21% |
55.97% |
| Cipla Corporation |
-3.69% |
52.76% |
Here are the stocks to watch ahead of Monday's trading session.
Piramal Enterprises: Signed a share purchase agreement to sell the entire 20% direct investment in Shriram Investment Holdings Pvt. Ltd. to Shriram Ownership Trust for Rs 1,440 crore. The transaction is expected to close by March 31, 2024. In June last year, Piramal Enterprises had sold its entire 8.3% stake in Shriram Finance through multiple block deals worth Rs 4,824 crore.
Tata Technologies: Rupee revenue increased by 1.6% to Rs 1,289.5 million. EBITDA margin was 18.3%, compared to 16.9% a year ago. Net profit increased by 6.1% to Rs 170.2 million. USD revenue increased 0.9% sequentially. Excluding currency effects, sales increased 5.8% year-on-year. Services revenue increased 0.6% sequentially and margins expanded 200 basis points. There were five large deals won during the quarter, including one with a TCV of over $50 million and one with a TCV of $25 million.
Vedanta: EBITDA is higher because costs are lower than expected. Revenue increased by 4.2% to 35,541 million rupees, and operating profit increased by 21% to 8,531 million rupees. EBITDA margin increased from 20.7% to 24%. Capital investments and dividend payments further increase debt.
APL Apollo tube: Sales volume slumped due to channel inventory reduction due to concerns about price revisions. Management expects production to improve in subsequent quarters as there are already signs of restocking after adjusting for domestic steel prices. Net debt is now Rs 400 million from Rs 240 million in March 2023. The share of value-added products increased to 59% from 56% last year and 55% in September.
Shriram Finance: Net interest income was Rs 5,093.9 million, higher than the survey result of Rs 4,801.1 million. Expenditure increased by 29.2% year-on-year to Rs 37,788 crore. Assets under management grew 20.7% year-on-year, led by two-wheelers, construction equipment, solar power, personal loans and gold loans. Growth in assets under management for agricultural machinery was sluggish. Gross NPAs increased from 5.79% to 5.66% quarter-on-quarter, while net NPA ratio remained flat at 2.8%.
Yes Bank: Net income increased compared to the same period last year due to lower provisions. However, it is higher on a continuous basis. Net interest income increased 2% year over year. Asset quality is stable. Recovery and upgrades will cost him over ₹1,300 crore.
Zen technology: Sales in the December quarter tripled and net profit increased five times compared to the previous year. EBITDA margin expanded from 25.3% to 45% year-on-year. The board has also approved him to raise Rs 1,000 crore through QIP or other means.
Sangi industry: Net loss widened to Rs 210 million from Rs 118 million a year ago due to higher expenses. Net sales increased by 42.4% to 189.1 million rupees, while expenses increased by 31.8% to 332.6 million rupees. Losses will also increase due to rising financial costs. EBITDA was a loss of 22.8 million rupees compared to 18.8 million rupees in the previous year.
Adani Power: Revenue increased by 67.3% to 12,991.4 million rupees from 7,764.4 million rupees. EBITDA margin increased from 18.8% to 35.8%. Unit sales increased 82% year on year to 25,523 million units.
Indiabulls Housing Finance: 3,693.4 million rupees will be raised through rights issue. The company will issue 24.62 billion stock acquisition rights. The rights issue price is fixed at ₹150 per rights share. Upon application, the shareholder will have to pay ₹50 per right share along with any outstanding warrants which he will call within 12 months from the date of allotment. The reference date for determining eligibility for vesting was fixed at February 1, 2024. The rights issue is scheduled to begin on February 7, 2024 and close on February 13, 2024. Eligible shareholders will receive one allocated share for every two fully paid shares held on the record date.
HDFC Bank: LIC will increase its stake in the lender to up to 9.99% with RBI's nod. LIC currently holds 5.19% stake in HDFC Bank, valued at around Rs 50,000 crore.
Laurus Institute: The company has entered into a joint venture agreement with Slovenia's KRKA, with KRKA holding a 51% stake and Laurus holding the remainder. The registered capital of the joint venture will be 450 million rupees or 50 million euros. The joint venture will enable the production of finished products for new markets, including India. Procedures and documentation are expected to be completed by March 2024.
Indian coal: Gujarat Industrial Power Corporation emerges as successful bidder for 300 MW capacity of Kavda Renewable Energy Park, grid-connected SPV project. Gujarat Urja Vikas Nigam Ltd. signs a 25-year power purchase agreement (PPA) with Coal India. The project is to be implemented within 14 months from the signing of the PPA.
Farmova rejoices: A wholly owned subsidiary sold all 25.8% of the shares in Sofie Biosciences in the US for $139.43 million. Of this amount, $113.6 million will be received upon completion of the merger and the remainder upon the achievement of certain future milestones. Jubilant Pharmova plans to use the proceeds for capital expenditures, deleveraging and other corporate purposes.
Capri Global: The Board of Directors approves the issuance of bonus shares in the ratio of 1:1. This means one free share for every share you own. It also approved a 1:2 stock split. This means that one share with a face value of Rs 2 will be split into two shares with a face value of Rs 2. 1
Bharat Bijuli: The board of directors is scheduled to meet on February 14 to consider the stock split.
What does the global queue indicate?
Asian markets started the new trading week on a positive note ahead of a slew of GDP and inflation figures to be released in the region this week.
The Nikkei Stock Average reversed Friday's decline and rose 0.5%, while the TOPIX rose 1%.
Meanwhile, South Korea's Kospi rose 0.5% and the Kosdaq fell in early trading.
Futures prices on the Hang Seng Market signaled a strong start to the trading day.
US markets ended mixed on Friday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq ending slightly lower, ending a six-day winning streak.
First Published: January 28, 2024 1:37 PM IST
