Last night's trading was corbin burns It surprised baseball.He has less than two weeks until spring training and the Brewers just spent $34 million on his contract. Rhys Hoskins For the next two seasons, the general expectation was that the team was going to keep a top star like Barnes around. Willie Adams and Devin Williams, even though the trio is inching closer to free agency. (Barnes and Adames will be free agents next winter, and Williams will be a free agent after the 2025 season.) But the Orioles apparently accepted an offer that Milwaukee's general manager felt he couldn't refuse, and after trading Arnold admitted the following: He is “certainly open to more conversations” and “has no intention of stopping conversations at this point in the offseason” (link via Adam McCalvey of MLB.com).
While this is far from a declaration that the Brewers are back in business, The Athletic's Ken Rosenthal and MLB.com's Mark Feinsand have reported that Williams, among others, could also be on the move. There is. Rosenthal wrote that the Brewers are already “entertaining” the possibility of moving their star player in the right direction.
Williams, 29, is one of the most effective relievers in the game. Over the past four seasons, he has posted a 1.75 ERA while striking out a whopping 40.5 percent of his opponents. Williams' walk rate of 11.9% is well above the league average, but his incredible strikeout ability, strong ground ball rate of 49.5%, and knack for inducing weak contact (85.1 mph average, 28.2% hard hit rate) all combined to help him soften that unstable command.
As good as Williams has been, he's not the typical power-weapon closer often seen in today's game. That's not to suggest he's a soft tosser, but he's not brandishing the triple-digit heaters that are increasingly common in modern baseball. Williams' fastball averaged 94.2 mph in 2023, exactly the average for relief pitchers in the league. And that 94.8mph date goes back to 2020. But Williams has one of his best pitches, an 80-point changeup called the “Airbender.” ” Nearly a quarter (23.1%) of the changeups Williams threw during his career produced a swinging strike. During his career, his opponents have only had a .137 batting average and a .199 slugging percentage.
Beyond his overwhelming dominance, Williams is extremely affordable. He agreed to a one-year, $7.25 million contract last month with a $10.5 million club option for the 2025 season, avoiding the need for an arbitration hearing this year or next. The value of that club option could increase based on some escalators built into the contract. Pitching in 52 games would increase the value of the option by $200,000, but pitching in 57 and 62 games would each add $250,000, and 66 games would add another $300,000 (which would add another $300,000 in 2022). A new career high of over 65 games is established). Even if Williams were to unlock that $1 million worth of escalators, the $11.5 million option for a reliever at this level would still be a clear bargain.
It's worth noting and emphasizing that there is no indication that Milwaukee is actively pursuing Williams or any other players on their roster. But this is how the Brewers (and Arnold's former organization, the Rays) have continued to operate. As the club's control declines, it remains open to star players, especially those whose demands are likely to be beyond the organization's comfort level. Extension fee.
Even though the Brewers are consistently in the bottom half of the league in terms of payroll, their flexibility in moving short-term players during one to two years of club control allows the Brewers to remain competitive on a regular basis. It is the driving force.trade of josh hader Brewers left-hander scores goal before 2022 deadline robert gasser (one of their current top pitching prospects) and an outfielder. Estury Lewiswho was then turned upside down. William Contreras, won the Silver Slugger Award as Milwaukee's starting catcher last season.Hader himself came to Milwaukee with him. Adrian Houser by sending a trade carlos gomez To Houston.right handed freddy peraltaCurrently the Brewers' top starter, he was acquired as a 19-year-old in a trade that sent a first baseman. Adam Lind To Seattle. The list goes on.
Any trade involving Williams would likely require a high asking price. Given Burns' control of the club for another year and a more affordable contract situation, the return will probably be as good or better than what Burns commanded. And like Barnes, Williams is thought to be a candidate for a qualifying offer once he becomes a free agent. That means his new team will know that as long as he stays healthy, there will be some compensation to recoup the value it lost in his draft pick. First of all, to get him.
With Barnes out and at least willing to listen to Williams, it's no wonder the Brewers feel the same way about Adames. The 28-year-old broke out shortly after being traded from Tampa Bay to Milwaukee in 2021, when the Brewers sent his right-hander. Drew Rasmussen and JP Faye Raizen To the Rays in exchange for Adames and a right-handed pitcher. trevor richards.
In two and a half years as a Brewer, Adames hit .242/.319/.454 with 75 home runs, 86 doubles, and two triples in 1,668 at-bats, all while playing strong defense at a premium position. . He has a strikeout rate of 26% and a walk rate of 10%, and has established himself as a power threat who can hit in any order, as evidenced by his 31 home run performance in 2022. Adames has 17 defensive saves and an above-average 26 outs over the past two seasons alone. He will make a reasonable $12.25 million in 2024 before becoming a free agent ahead of his age-29 season.
Like Barnes, Adames is also a candidate for a qualifying offer next season. He will very likely receive or decline a QO, and is certain to sign a contract worth more than $50 million with his next team. That would give Milwaukee a compensatory pick at the end of the first round of the 2025 draft. Any trade offer would have to exceed that value, and likely by a wide margin.
Although, Joey Ortiz Trading Barnes makes it easier for the Brewers to hear offers. Ortiz himself is a shortstop and an MLB-ready player. He struggled in a small sample in his MLB debut last year (34 at-bats, batting .212/.206/.242), but is a skilled hitter in the upper minors and a good defensive shortstop. is considered a person. Ortiz, 25, spent most of the 2023 season at Triple-A Norfolk, where he hit .321/.378/.507. This was his second stint in Norfolk, as he also finished the 2022 season there, performing well in a sample of 115 at-bats. Overall, in 504 games in Triple-A, Ortiz is a .327/.383/.521 hitter with 13 home runs, 37 doubles, six triples, and 17 stolen bases.
Of course, Ortiz is more than capable of breaking into the major leagues as a plus defender at shortstop and as a second or third baseman. He and Adames can absolutely coexist on Milwaukee's roster, and if the team sticks with Adames next season, Ortiz could easily be converted to shortstop in 2025.The Brewers probably don't think so. need I'm willing to trade Adames, but I'm not going to veto anyone on principle, as Arnold strongly hinted.
That willingness to listen could set the stage for one or two more splashy trades between now and Opening Day, but this one could mean the Brewers sell everything they haven't made yet. It's not a situation like the A's. Burns managed two immediate major leaguers, both of whom had six years of franchise control remaining. A trade for Williams, Adams, and/or any other player on the roster would likely require similar short-term help.
The Brewers' recent signing of Hoskins and their focus on MLB-ready talent at the cost of trading their ace underscores the fact that this is not the team for 2024. Rather, they are trying to thread the needle of staying competitive with annual prize money. Burns' new team was able to build that foundation without having to dismantle it, as it did in the five years it took to emerge as a powerhouse in the American League East. After Barnes' big hit, the team will no doubt revisit Williams, Adames, and others, but further trades aren't necessarily a given.
