The Orioles and Brewers made a surprising deal Thursday night that will send former Cy Young Award winner Corbin Burnes to Baltimore. A proven front-line starter joins the Orioles, who won the American League East in 101 games last season. Milwaukee will acquire a top-100 prospect for the right-hander, who is entering the final year of his current contract, as well as a highly anticipated pitcher and a 2024 draft pick.
Orioles win reporter Jake Lill, Brewers win reporter Adam McCalvey, executive reporter Mark Feinsand, and analyst Mike Petriello help us break down the trade and what it means for both sides. Analyze what it means.
Trade details
What the Orioles will receive: RHP Corbin Barnes
Brewers receive: SS Joey Ortiz (MLB Pipeline's No. 63 prospect, Orioles' No. 6 prospect), LHP DL Hall, 2024 Competitive Balance Round A Draft Pick
Here's MLB.com's experts breaking down this interesting exchange from every angle.
Why it makes sense for the Orioles
Via Orioles beat writer Jake Lill
Baltimore already has the majority of its solid rotation back for 2024, with youngsters Kyle Bradish, Grayson Rodriguez, and Dean Kremer making big strides over the past two seasons, and John Means joining Tommy About two years after John's surgery, he remained healthy. But the O's needed an ace, a true No. 1 starter who could play in Game 1 of a postseason series.
Barnes is exactly the type of pitcher who can fill that role. The 2021 National League Cy Young Award winner and three-time All-Star is racking up innings (188 per season over the past three years) and strikeouts (206 per year over the same span). He also has a 2.86 ERA in 105 games (102 starts) since the start of the 2020 season.
Last year, the Orioles' rotation ERA was 4.14, which ranked seventh in the American League and 11th in MLB. Although he was swept by the Rangers in the AL District Series, he allowed 13 earned runs in eight innings as a starting pitcher. Barnes could help lower the staff's ERA and ensure Baltimore makes another postseason run.
Ortiz is hampered by the Orioles' farm system, which is rich in middle infield talent, and Hall has yet to prove he can be a starter at the major league level. Baltimore still has five of the top 32 prospects in baseball after the trade. See more >
Why it makes sense for the Brewers
via Brewers beat writer Adam McCalvey
The Brewers have long been transparent about their philosophy. If they make the playoffs every year, they have a chance to become a team that gets hot at the right time, like last year's Rangers and D-backs. The Brewers have made the postseason in five of the past six years. It's still not hot even in October.
To continue to provide those opportunities, they face difficult decisions, including trading Barnes, who ranks second in starting ERA in franchise history and is in his final season before free agency. The teams made no progress in extension talks, so the alternatives were to keep him until the beginning of next season and trade him before the deadline, or keep him and get just a draft pick in return.
Perhaps that wasn't enough to keep the competitive cycle going, so general manager Matt Arnold instead acquired that premium draft pick and two young, ready-to-play talents. Hall will likely get the bullpen job from the get-go, and Ortiz will be in a wide derby vying for third base.
It's a tough business. Barnes is one of baseball's few true aces, and he's in his prime. But this was a decision the Brewers felt they had to make. See more >
Prospect profile
Via MLB Pipeline
SS Joey Ortiz (Top 100 63rd)
Year: 25 people in 2024
height: 5’9” / weight: 190 lbs.
Bat: R/ throw: R
MLB Estimated Time of Arrival: 2024
Scouting grade (20-80): Hits: 50 | Power: 50 | Execution: 45 | Arm: 55 | Field: 65 | Total: 55
2023 statistics
Triple A: .321/.378/.507, 9 HR, 58 RBI, 11 SB, 32 BB/69 SO (389 PA)
MLB: .212/.206/.242, 0 HR, 4 RBI, 0 SB, 0 BB/9 SO (34 PA)
There's no question that Ortiz can play shortstop in the big leagues. He has great hands, excellent action, and plus-plus instincts that, combined with a good body clock, make him near an elite-level defender. He has an even stronger and more accurate arm, and it didn't slow him down even though he added a lot of strength to his frame during the 2020 COVID-19 shutdown. His improvement at the plate changed his profile from a potential glove-first utility type to someone who should be able to play shortstop every day in the big leagues right away. See more >
Effects of hot stove
Via Executive Reporter Mark Feinsand
Speculation has been rife for more than a year that Barnes would eventually be traded, but after the Brewers signed Reece Hoskins last week, Milwaukee will keep its core for another run in the postseason. Looked ready. Now that Barnes has been released, the Brewers may look to acquire more starting pitching, especially given the lack of strong teams in the National League Central division.
With Barnes and Tyler Glasnow set to move to new teams in 2024, the most likely starting pitchers who could still be moved before the season or later in the summer are the White Sox' Dylan Cease and the Guardians' Shane. It's a beaver. The former comes with two years of club control, and the former Cy Young Award winner is set to become a free agent at the end of next season, so Chicago could get a bigger package than Milwaukee got for Barnes. possible to obtain.
dive deep
Via Analyst Mike Petriello
“Come on, Orioles, do something,” FanGraphs' Ben Clemens implored two weeks ago, imploring the team coming off an incredible 101-win season to strike while the iron is hot. Consider the “something” that capped off a tumultuous 48 hours that began with the unexpected news that the team would be sold. Barnes, 29, is the 2021 National League Cy Young Award winner and one of the few true aces in the sport, posting a 2.86 ERA and 31% strikeout rate over the past four years. . He ranks second among all pitchers in fWAR.
Even in 2023, when on the surface it appears that its dominance has weakened somewhat, its position remains stable. His 3.39 ERA and 25% strikeout rate, while both good, were the weakest since his breakout in 2020, but as a result of adjusting his pitching shape early in the season, he has changed his pitching ability to include a slider and a sweeper. This is influenced by the fact that Barnes started the final 16 games and posted a 2.72 ERA. Since June 1, only four regular starters have had a harder time getting on base than Barnes, and one of them, Gerrit Cole, won the AL Cy Young Award by unanimous decision.
But what's really interesting here is that one of the other three names on that list was Barnes' new teammate, Kyle Bradish, who broke out in 2023. And young Grayson Rodriguez was in the top 20 after being demoted to Triple-A midseason. The Orioles' rotation in 2023 was mid-major by any measure. The Orioles' rotation in 2024 could be great. Yes, Barnes was only signed for one more year, but the price for that was getting something like a top-five pitcher in baseball for one year, an infielder they don't have room for, and a reliever. The goal was to acquire a pitcher who may or may not become a pitcher. .
As for Milwaukee, this seems like a light return on the surface, but Barnes only has one more year of control left, and I'm not sure a player like that will bring in much return. We have learned this over and over again over the years. Hall has a huge arm from the left side, but control issues hampered his early ambitions. He made an early positive return when he moved to the bullpen in 2023.
Ortiz, 25, has a reputation as a glove-first shortstop. The issue here is more about direction than return. That's because Milwaukee still appears to be a favorite in the weak National League Central Division, and they just recently added Reece Hoskins to supplement their offense. It always seemed possible to trade Barnes. What does that mean for the following?
Statistics you need to know
Via MLB.com Research Staff
three: This is the number of times Barnes has reached the 200-strikeout mark in the past three years, making him one of only five pitchers in MLB to reach that mark. But Barnes will likely be even more prominent in Baltimore. No Orioles pitcher has reached 200 K since Eric Bedard in 2007. Since the team moved to Baltimore in 1954, individual pitchers have had just five such seasons, with Hall of Famers Mike Mussina having three seasons, Bedard having one season, and Dave McNally. is one season. (In case you're wondering, Hall of Famer Jim Palmer recorded his 199 strikeouts in 1970.)
