High interest rates and a slump in out-of-state tourism are putting a brake on Montana's breakneck economic growth. This was revealed by a research group at the University of Montana.
The 2024 Economic Outlook seminar drew hundreds of executives, government officials, and researchers to a Missoula ballroom. The director of the Bureau of Commerce and Economic Research told attendees that Montana and the nation appear to be on track for a “soft landing” for the economy.
Patrick Barkey said after explosive profits in 2021, growth will continue to slow, but a recession is unlikely.
“I don't think there's much reason to be excited about the low growth forecast,” Barkey told MTPR. “I think we’ve stopped thinking that the economy is in bad shape.”
The research group's presenters said Montana's major industries, including construction, retail, health care and hospitality, will continue to perform well in 2023. But high interest rates have reduced mortgage applications and dampened tourism and immigration. That would “reverse” the state's economic growth.
Mr Varkey said consumer attitudes towards the economy could improve with stabilizing growth, slowing inflation and expectations for a rate cut in 2024. That's backed up by a recent University of Michigan study that found consumer sentiment is at its highest level in more than two years.
