So…is that all? Is that the move?
The Miami Heat team went into the summer hoping its assets would be enough to acquire Damian Lillard, but instead left in late January with slightly less…Terry. Rosier? The fact that this happened, and that the Heat did it with over two weeks left before the Feb. 8 trade deadline, says a lot about the state of the NBA trade market.
Before we delve into it, let's first review the details of the deal. Miami traded Kyle Lowry's expiring $29.7 million contract and a protected future first-round pick to Rozier and the Charlotte Hornets. The pick is lottery-protected in 2027 if it's transfer-eligible (which would require Miami to transfer a lottery-protected 2025 pick to Oklahoma City), but otherwise. It will become an unprotected nomination in 2028.
Rozier will make $23.2 million this season and $24.9 million in 2024-25. For the 2025-26 season, $24.9 million of the $26.4 million is already guaranteed, and the remaining $2.5 million will go to Rozier if the team reaches the second round of the playoffs in either of the next two seasons. This will be guaranteed if you participate in the match. Now, let's think of it as a three-year contract.
The deal gives Miami a $6.4 million trade exception, which likely won't be an issue, as the Heat already have two major exceptions. Finally, the Heat will move closer to being taxed. They are currently over $1.27 million, but would need to move more money than that to sign players and stay below that. We discuss what that could portend further moves in the future.
For Charlotte, the logic is simple. If you're 10-31 midway through the season and someone offers you an unprotected draft pick on 29-year-old Terry Rozier, you're going to give him credit for playing through a bad team this season. Thank him and give him a ride to the airport. Perhaps Charlotte could buy Lowry out after the trade deadline if his contract is not available for another deal.
Miami's puzzle piece is more interesting. Because the Heat have always been far more interested in big game hunting than incremental upgrades. Rozier is a quality player who had a strong season while languishing in obscurity in Charlotte, but he's no Lillard. By making a deal this early, Miami is excluded from a decent-sized blockbuster for a potentially available star player, which strongly suggests such a deal isn't very realistic. .
Indeed, if there's anything that stands out about this deal, it's who. It wasn't Trade: Atlanta Hawks guard Dejounte Murray is the biggest name on the trade market so far, and is a younger and better player than Rozier. One wonders if the Hawks wanted more than just one pick from Miami in Playball, since trading Patty Mills' contracts for Lowry and Murray would have worked. Either way, having Miami out of the picture means Atlanta loses leverage with other potential trade dance partners.
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And yet… Murray is the biggest name left on the board now that Pascal Siakam and OG Anunoby have already moved on and no one seems interested in picking up Zach LaVine's contract. Are there any other late blockbusters waiting to sneak up on us? Miami cutting the cards here makes that scenario seem unrealistic, at least in the eyes of one front office. It is shown that.
Instead, the Heat implemented a different front office concept, one that could be called “keeping capital alive.” Miami had Lowry's $29.7 million off the books, which wasn't ideal considering a potential trade. Once the season ends, the Heat could lack the appropriate salary to put together a package for the next Lillard-like star, especially if signing Tyler Herro isn't desirable. Dew.
By replacing Lowry with Rozier, Miami is left with a comfortable mid-sized contract for two years, with $51 million remaining on Rozier's contract after this season. Unnamed Star Combined with other salaries that may be included (on the books, it's only $3.7 million next season), the Heat could get into a salary match with a max-level player without having to part with Jimmy Butler or Bam Adebayo. You can come as you please.
Additionally, the Heat gave up a future first-round pick in this trade, making it difficult to incorporate large numbers of first-round picks into future contracts. But despite that, their trade situation doesn't change much come draft night. The Heat will acquire a new pick in June, as their 2024 first-round pick will be available for trade on draft day. Miami could put that pick, the 2030 pick, on the table in a trade package with a two-year no-pick swap to Charlotte and Oklahoma City, as well as swaps in 2029 and 2031. First he's had it twice, exchanged he's had it four times, and Jaquez will most likely get his calls returned unless he dials a Portland area code.
As for the short-term logic of the trade, that's where Miami really wins. The Heat converted Lowry's contract into a future tradable salary while also solving two current issues. The first, smaller problem was the luxury tax situation, which was expensive and could restrict trade conditions. The Heat will save about $12 million in payroll and taxes and can now get by with small trades like sending a future second (believe it or not, there's still one) and the injured Jrue. Close enough to the first apron. Smith and little-used Orlando Robinson joined the Forlorn Five at the deadline. Perhaps more interestingly, these moves, along with a trade for Caleb Martin, could result in a full luxury tax exemption (more on that below).
The second, bigger problem was that the Heat's offense was falling apart and their guard play was becoming increasingly dire. With Gabe Vincent and Max Strauss free agents from last year's conference champions, Josh Richardson proving to be an overwhelming replacement, and the 37-year-old Lowry declining significantly, 20th-ranked Miami's offense is well-equipped in the backcourt. I was unable to demonstrate my full potential. There was no advantage on the perimeter, and possessions often devolved into situations where Bam Adebayo could compete for a pull-up here.
Yes, Rozier may be a little similar to Herro offensively, but the Heat needed more shooting, skill, and shot creation on the perimeter. Rozier is better at checking point guards defensively than Herro, and his authenticity as a true point guard is less important in Miami, where Adebayo and Butler do much of the playmaking. Overall, this is a clear upgrade that overcomes some obvious weaknesses.
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Terry Rozier's Trade Show The Heat accepted the status quo in the East.
More broadly, one wonders what that might imply for the future of Charlotte and Miami. If the Hornets break things up under new ownership and build around LaMelo Ball, Brandon Miller, and hopefully Mark Williams (once his nagging back injury heals), other veterans could also be on the market. Of course he should appear. Although there's not much to entice the team here (can we get some interest in the lightly used James Bouknight? What does it take to run the lot with JT Thor today?) , Gordon Hayward, it makes sense that Nick would do that. Both Richards and PJ Washington should draw light meals. If other teams can withstand a PR hit, Miles Bridges might too.
For Miami, the next obvious question involves Caleb Martin. Actually, I have a lot of questions. The arrival of Jaquez has made Martin somewhat expendable, and he's likely to opt out of next season's cheap $7.1 million contract.
So here's the question: Would Miami re-sign Martin at his market value (probably in the $15 million to $20 million range) and throw in a hefty tax bill? Or does acquiring Rozier indicate the Heat want to spend their 2024-25 money differently? If so, wouldn't it make sense to see what he can get on the market now? On the other hand, is there a realistic deal to replace him in the rotation and keep them under the apron, especially considering his meager $6.8 million cap hit? If not, would the Heat be happy to get protection first instead of the protection they gave up for Rozier? And could they seriously trade a player who shot 99 percent in last year's Eastern Conference Finals (all stats approximate) when he is theoretically in win-now mode?
That's going to spark more intrigue over the next two weeks, but the bigger signal from this trade is that nothing that really surprises us may happen. If another team made this move, they might not react as strongly. However, if the Miami Heat agree to acquire Terry Rozier 17 days before the deadline, the trade market for the February star will likely disappear completely.
Related books
Harper: Assessing Terry Rozier and Kyle Lowry's contracts
Weiss and Guillory: How will Miami's move affect the top of the East?
(Top photo of Heat President Pat Riley: Isaac Baldizon/NBAE via Getty Images)
