Written by Andy McCullough, Stephen J. Nesbitt, Will Sammon, Eno Sallis
the transaction
The Baltimore Orioles will get: Corbin Barnes, RHP
What the Milwaukee Brewers get: DL Hall, LHP. Joey Ortiz, INF. 2024 Competitive Balance Round A Draft Pick (34th overall)
Andy McCullough: There was some consternation among Orioles supporters earlier this winter about the team's lack of aggression in the pitching market. All the pieces were in place for a 2023 franchise: a 101-win team, a young and vibrant core of position players, and a rebuilt relationship with the fan base. All the club needed was a spot in the starting rotation, preferably as a No. 1 starter. This organization owned the surplus of the farm system to run it. In a mailbag I wrote last month, I answered a question from a Baltimore fan wondering why it took general manager Mike Elias so long to address the vacancy.
“I don't necessarily like attack for attack's sake,” I wrote. “If we get a good player on Nov. 15 or Jan. 15, it’s not going to make a huge difference.”
And the same principle applies on February 1st. Credit Elias for giving up the prospective capital needed to make such a high-profile addition.
Here are Corbin Burnes' rankings of eligible starting pitchers for 2020 and beyond.
- 2nd in wins over replacement (17.9), according to FanGraphs
- 5th ERA (2.86)
- 3rd in FIP (2.84)
- Bottom of the 5th inning (622 1/3)
- 7th in strikeout rate (11.06 per 9 innings)
He's the complete package in terms of a modern-day starting pitcher. For a team like the Orioles, who will likely treat Barnes as a rental, a slight decline in his pitching metrics in 2023 may not be as alarming as a team interested in the long-term contract Barnes is seeking. do not have. He will become a free agent after this season. He provides a front-line starter for a rotation that already features promising arms like Kyle Bradish and Grayson Rodriguez, and John Means is also expected to play a key role in 2024.
The centerpiece of Milwaukee's return package is DL Hall, a former first-round pick who made his debut in Baltimore's bullpen last season. The Brewers believe Hall can develop into a quality starter, a belief shared by Elias, who is optimistic about infielder Joey Ortiz, who was largely blocked in Baltimore's infield. The 34th pick in this year's draft is a welcome addition.
This trade is unlikely to be popular in Milwaukee. Depending on how you look at it, it could be a short-term capitulation, trading away your best players when the current division champions still have a good chance of winning, or a loss of business costs for clubs that have dedicated themselves to this style of team. It is suggesting one or the other. building. The Brewers haven't punted in 2024. There's a reason they signed Rhys Hoskins. However, the team knew they had no intention of signing Barnes to a long-term contract. They chose to maximize his value rather than just take a draft pick fee next summer. Knowing how Milwaukee tends to optimize pitchers, it wouldn't be a shock if Hall was named an All-Star in 2024.
Still, it's always disappointing when a team partes ways with an elite player like this. Barnes emerged as a star in Milwaukee, and in recent years, along with Brandon Woodruff, anchored the club's multiple postseason appearances. Woodruff suffered a shoulder injury last season, ending his tenure in Milwaukee. This doesn't mean the Brewers won't be competitive this season. They may still be favorites to win the National League Central Division. With Woodruff gone, Craig Counsell settled in Chicago, and Barnes heading to Charm City, it's the end of an era in Milwaukee.
Brewers grade: B
Orioles grade: a
Stephen J. Nesbitt: By acquiring a top starting pitcher on the trade market, the Orioles instantly upgraded their rotation from a midfielder to a strong pitcher. After a long rebuild, the Orioles had a lineup packed with young talent and a number of promising prospects, but the missing piece of the puzzle was an ace. Barnes is an ace through and through. Don't take it from me. Consider the opinions of industry experts who voted him a top-three starter in the sport last spring, on par with Gerrit Cole.
“Smart,” said a scout at the time. “Durable. Damn. He's got everything.”
It is certainly so. Barnes didn't become a regular in the Brewers' rotation until 2020, but he posted a 2.86 ERA over the next four seasons, winning the Cy Young Award in 2021 and finishing sixth and seventh in the other years. He finished in 8th place. The Orioles' ability to provide Barnes with a player package that doesn't damage the core is a testament to the strength of the team's farm system. Hall is a former first-round pitcher who moved to the bullpen due to command issues, but the Brewers will give him another chance to start. Ortiz is a top-100 prospect, but the Orioles are already scheduled to acquire infielders Gunnar Henderson (22 years old), Jackson Holiday (20 years old), and Jordan Westberg (25 years old) in 2024, making it a triple. There's also 23-year-old A's second-round pitcher Connor Norby. .
With all that said, the Orioles definitely came out stronger with this trade and didn't let go of an elite prospect. They will instead pay Burns' $15.6 million salary and put some of that money into play. new ownership money Use. That's a victory. The Brewers, on the other hand, got a big boost by saving money, losing their ace, and adding two 25-year-olds who are MLB-ready. It's not for nothing, but it's not really a victory.
Brewers grade: B-
Orioles grade: a
Will Sammon: Barnes is as dedicated to his job as any athlete I've ever met. To recover from a terrible 2019, he changed all of his daily and weekly habits while working with a mental strength coach. Since then, his annual activities on the mound have become as routine as making his bed in the morning.
The Orioles can give Barnes 200 innings and hope for a top-10 Cy Young Award finish. How many pitchers can claim that's a prediction? Scouts love his tenacity, executives love his durability.
On the mound, Barnes operates with a constant shoulder bump. He has an arrogance in his work, as many great players tend to do. Those who know him best suggest he is poised for a monster season ahead of free agency. The Orioles acquired an ace who was once a pillar of the Brewers' recent consistent success.
The way the Brewers are doing things this offseason seems strange to me.
Certainly, for a team operating on a smaller budget than most teams, trading away a star before a walk year makes logical sense. They can't risk losing him for nothing, and they can't repeat the Josh Hader trade from a few years ago that failed during a pennant race by bringing the Stars closer to the deadline.
But Milwaukee operated in an interesting way before this move. Owner Mark Attanasio has stepped up his offer for Rhys Hoskins and the Brewers have made a competitive offer for Aroldis Chapman, league sources said. They had room to win here and looked like they were doing a great job of prioritizing young players and getting into 2024. They appeared to be taking advantage of the last hurray with Barnes and Willie Adams, another free agent after the following season. So? The messages are mixed at best.
Brewers grade: C+
Orioles grade: a
Eno Sallis: This makes a lot of sense for the Orioles. Barnes is only a year old, but he's at least a top-three starter in the league, along with two top-20 young starters. my recent rankings. They probably didn't have a starting spot for Ortiz in the infield, and Hall was probably a bullpen guy, maybe a starter, maybe a bullpen guy even in their own public comments. New owners, a team coming off a great season, they seized the moment.
This makes a lot of sense for the Brewers. They probably weren't going to pay to keep Barnes if Barnes' team control expired after this season, and for Barnes they had some assets that might be useful beyond this season ( and nomination rights).
In the minor leagues, Ortiz hit 114.9 mph in 2023, a mark only 30 major leaguers achieved in the major leagues last season, and he did it with an above-average strikeout rate and good defense. did. He could end up playing No. 3 or No. 2 for the Brewers this year, and if Milwaukee continues the reboot and sends Willie Adames somewhere (Los Angeles?), they'll be playing Bryce Turan and shortstop. He might even be on the list.
On the pitching front, the Brewers got Hall. Hall, a lefty who hit 96 mph last year, has a couple of very strong secondary players, although his speed helps. He has had command issues in the past, but his position the past two years has been above average in a small sample. Hall will have a great chance to break into a major league rotation from day one this season, and the fundamentals suggest he could be a successful starter in that regard.
The Orioles likely feel they have protected their best position player asset and turned a bullpen player into one of the best starters in the league. The Brewers are excited about the future of two young players who will remain in Milwaukee after this season. it works.
Brewers grade: B
Orioles grade: a
(Top photo of Burns: John Fisher/Getty Images)
