Daryl Morey has been one of the most aggressive general managers in the league when it comes to making moves at the trade deadline. He usually wins those trades too. He shares one of the reasons for this in Michael Lewis' book, The Undoing Project.
Morley has a number of techniques to rid his staff of cognitive biases that lead to bad deals. One of his is assigning a draft pick value to everyone on the roster, aimed at countering the endowment effect that tends to overvalue one's own players.
Salary match and other shaky trade rules aside, what's the lowest pick you can take back for a player in a vacuum? For example, Joel Embiid might be worth multiple No. 1 overall picks. . A player like Tobias Harris could be closer to the 15th pick in the draft.
This creates a useful measure of how long it will take to acquire some of the players available during this year's Feb. 8 trade deadline. Also, given the large difference between an unprotected pick in the draft lottery and a protected pick in the top 20, this is far from what is currently commonly referred to as first-round picks 1, 2, or It's much more accurate than three people.
There is one important point. These ratings are based on the player's contract transactions, not skill level. A player with a very good contract (Alex Caruso) will be worth more than a good player with a worse contract (Zach LaVine).
Here are the top 20 players available by the deadline, ranked by draft pick value.
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Ranking of the best players available before the trade deadline
20. Doug McDermott, Spurs
- Remaining contract: 1 year, $13.8 million
- select a value: Nominated 40th place
19. DeAndre Hunter, Hawks
- remaining contract: 4 years, $90 million
- select a value:37th pick
18. Royce O'Neal, Nets
- remaining contract: 1 year, $9.5 million
- select a value: Nominated 35th place
17. Harrison Barnes, Kings
- remaining contract: 3 years, $54 million
- select a value:32nd pick
T-16.Daniel Gafford, Wizards
- remaining contract: 3 years, $40.2 million
- select a value:30th place nomination
T-16.Andre Drummond, Bulls
- remaining contract: 1 year, $3.4 million
- select a value:30th place nomination
14. Kelly Olynyk, Jazz
- remaining contract: 1 year, $12.2 million
- select a value:29th pick
13. D'Angelo Russell, Lakers
- remaining contract: 2 years, $36 million (player option for second year)
- select a value:28th pick
T-12.Tyus Jones, Wizards
- remaining contract: 1 year, $14 million
- select a value:27th pick
T-12.Kevin Huerter, Kings
- remaining contract: 3 years, $50.5 million
- select a value:27th pick
10. Zach LaVine, Bulls
- Remaining contract: 4 years, $178.1 million
- select a value:26th pick
LaVine is one of the two best players currently available on the trade market. The problem is that his work doesn't match the contract. He's best suited as a No. 3 on a championship team, but he's also the 16th highest-paid player this season.
Please put the contract aside for a moment. LaVine has been one of the league's best offensive players the past two seasons. He's an incredible 3-point shooter, making 38.2 percent of his career, and it's not easy to attempt them. He is also a great finisher at the rim and can get to the basket in a hurry, but both his shooting and finishing have declined this year.
The big concern for LaVine is injuries. He has had several injuries to his knee and is currently forced to miss the rest of the year with a foot problem that requires surgery. According to Bulls insider KC Johnson, this decimates his trade market, to the point where the Bulls may have to attach assets to get him out of his contract.
For now, it would be best for the Bulls to keep LaVine and hope he can regain some of his value next year.
More: Zach LaVine reportedly wants to be traded to the Lakers. Should LA be pursued?
9. PJ Washington, Hornets
- Remaining contract: 3 years, $46.5 million
- select a value: Nominated 25th place
Washington is a solid forward who creates his own offense, shoots well enough to earn respect from outsiders, and does his job defensively. He can be very explosive offensively, scoring 43 points off the bench earlier this season. He has great positional versatility and can play small-ball center in a pinch.
Washington's contract is very reasonable, making him valuable for a team looking for a fourth or fifth starter.
8. Bruce Brown Jr., Raptors
- remaining contract: 2 years, $45 million (team option for second year)
- select a value:20th place nomination
Brown proved in last year's playoffs that he is good enough to be a part of a championship team's seven-man rotation. He's a jack-of-all-trades guard, one of the smartest cutters in the league, can hit a lot of threes and can do a bit of playmaking.
Where Brown really brings value is on the defensive end as a tenacious pit bull who makes plays bigger than his 6-4 height. Every playoff team needs a two-way glue like him.
Brown has played well for the Raptors since being acquired in the Pascal Siakam deal, but he doesn't mean much to the Raptors. His contract also provides a lot of flexibility for the team that acquires him. They can use him as a rental until the end of the year or bring him back with a $23 million option.
More: This sequence shows why Bruce Brown Jr. is a perfect fit for the Raptors
7. Malcolm Brogdon, Trail Blazers
- remaining contract: 2 years, $45 million
- select a value: Nominated 19th
Last year's Sixth Man of the Year had a very quietly good season on a terrible Blazers team. Brogdon is a smart defender, a career 39.1 percent 3-point shooter, and a smart playmaker. He is another role player who can strengthen the team's attack and support the stars around him.
Brogdon does have injury concerns, which lowers his value. But he can help the team in the playoffs and is mostly healthy this year.
6. Bogdan Bogdanovic (Hawks)
- remaining contract: 4 years, $68 million (4th year team option)
- select a value: Nominated 18th
Bogdanovic is a great mobile shooter who has made 38.5% of his 3s over his career. He's also a great creator with the ball in his hands. He scored 17.2 points per game off the bench for the Hawks, making him a strong candidate for Sixth Man of the Year.
He's not known for his defense and wouldn't be a good fit next to Trae Young, but every team needs shooting and Bogdanovic can lift them up. He has a solid contract that locks him in until his age-34 season.
5. Quentin Grimes, Knicks
- remaining contract: 2 years, $6.7 million
- select a value: Nominated 17th
Grimes was a limited player in New York, relegated almost exclusively to shooting threes and the occasional open layup. However, he played the role well, making 37.9 percent of his attempts from deep over his career. Combined with his tough on-ball defense on the wing, he's the type of solid starter who can quickly slide into multiple teams' rotations.
Grimes also offers value because of his youth. The 23-year-old is still on his rookie contract, but his salary this season is a paltry $2.4 million, far below what a starter-level player should earn. Once his current contract expires, any team that trades for him will have restricted free agent rights.
Grimes looks like a smart buyer candidate who has fallen out of the Knicks' rotation due to depth on the wing.
4. Kyle Kuzma, Wizards
- remaining contract: 4 years, $90 million
- select a value: Nominated 16th
Kuzma is in such a bad situation in Washington that it's hard to evaluate him, but he's a good scorer, an improved passer, and his position size is 6-9. He showed a few years ago that under better circumstances he can be a good enough on-ball defender.
Kuzma's contract pays him a bit more than the average starter's money. This is a bargain for a player who can give a playoff team 20 points a night.
3. DeMar DeRozan, Bulls
- remaining contract: 1 year, $28.6 million
- select a value: Nominated 15th place
DeRozan wasn't the same level of player he was in his past two All-Star campaigns. Now that he's 34 years old, his father's time is starting to catch up with him. This is especially true in back-to-back games with no rest.
He remains one of the top 30 players in the league thanks to his talented scoring ability. He's never been better at missing midrange jumpers or drawing fouls every time a defender leaves his feet. He also has great footwork in the post. When a team is forced to send him a double, he makes a good pass to set up his teammates.
DeRozan's two glaring weaknesses are his lack of 3-point shooting and poor defense. He's a more aggressive shooter this year and a more solid defender.
DeRozan's contract is up and he will be on loan until the end of the year. That would limit his value, but it would give him Bird rights if the team trading him chooses to re-sign him over the cap in the summer.
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2. Alex Caruso, Bulls
- remaining contract: 2 years, $19.4 million (partially guaranteed in year 2)
- select a value: Nominated 10th place
Caruso helped the Bulls win numerous games by making seemingly impossible defensive plays in the most important moments. He can guard anyone from a hard-hitting power forward like Julius Randle to the ever-moving Stephen Curry, and he probably does a better job in one-on-one situations than any other player in the league.
That makes him an invaluable asset to playoff teams in need of a stopper. Caruso was named to the All-Defensive First Team last season and has been equally outstanding this year.
Caruso has also become a more reliable player offensively. He's been shooting threes and at a decent rate, but he's been so reluctant to shoot that teams have left him open. This year, he's hitting 40.5% from deep and nearly doubling his attempts. The Bulls are using him more as a lead guard, where he has shown the ability to drive and set up his teammates.
The reason Caruso is better than some big scorers is because his contract is such a bargain. His $9.5 million is very easy to trade and is locked in at a similar rate next year.
1. Dejounte Murray, Hawks
- remaining contract: 5 years, $128.8 million (5th year player option)
- select a value: Nominated 8th place
Murray has been named to the All-Star and All-Defensive teams in the past, showing he is capable of being a two-way player. He is a pick-and-roll player who averages 21.5 points and 5.2 assists per year. After being a shaky shooter early in his career, he's hitting 36.8 percent from 3-point range this season. And he was always great from midrange.
Murray has taken a step back defensively, but is still adept at getting into passing lanes. He certainly deserves a good lottery pick and is the best player available at this deadline.
