Total foreign tourist arrivals to the Greater Bay Area (GBA) will recover to pre-pandemic levels of nearly 130 million by the end of 2024, and total inbound tourist arrivals to Hong Kong will increase from 2018 is expected to recover to this level. These are some of the findings announced by the School of Hotel and Tourism Management (SHTM) at the Hong Kong Polytechnic University (PolyU) today as it launches a new forecasting platform under the Project. Development of an automated self-adaptive tourism demand forecasting platform (GBA-TDFP) for the Greater Bay Area.
guided by Professor Haiyan Song, Principal Investigator and Deputy Dean of SHTM, Professor of International Tourism and Professor and Mrs. Tran Chak Foo, this project takes a multidisciplinary approach to develop the GBA-TDFP by integrating established theories from economics, tourism management, and computer science. Equipped with key features such as big data visualization, market sensitivity analysis, short-term, medium-term and long-term forecasting, sentiment analysis, and interactive scenario forecasting, it is a great tool for industry experts, policy makers, and academics to adapt. It serves as a valuable tool. Generate visitor arrival forecasts to his GBA in different economic scenarios.
Tourism is considered a key industry in the GBA and aims to become a leading global destination by 2035. Although the economy has now largely recovered from the shock of travel restrictions and public health measures taken during the pandemic, challenges remain. There are many challenges to overcome, including labor shortages, supply constraints, changing economic conditions, and changing consumer behavior. All of these are necessary to maintain continued recovery.
Professor Song said, Accurate forecasts of tourism demand recovery are essential to enable policy makers and practitioners to develop sustainable tourism strategies that foster long-term economic growth for the region.
To facilitate accurate forecasting, this project collected macroeconomic data such as GDP, CPI, and exchange rates for GBA cities and their major source markets from statistical departments and international organizations such as the International Monetary Fund . For short-term tourism demand forecasting, the project leveraged big data collected from popular online and social media platforms such as Google, Ctrip, and Baidu.
The analysis revealed the following:
(1) According to short-term forecasts, the number of visitors to Hong Kong and Macau is expected to recover significantly by the end of 2024. Mainland Chinese cities within the GBA are expected to see a strong recovery in domestic foot traffic. These projections suggest that visitor numbers will reach levels comparable to those observed before the pandemic.
(2) Five-year long-term tourism demand forecast results show that the total number of domestic and inbound tourists arriving in the GBA, as well as the number of visitors within the GBA, will return to pre-pandemic levels by the end of 2024. By 2027, more than 335 million domestic tourist arrivals are expected to arrive across the GBA, and 195 million international tourist arrivals. The number of visitors within the GBA is predicted to reach 200 million.
(3) In GBA, visitor reviews lean overwhelmingly positive for all destinations. These encouraging reviews not only testify to the strong recovery of the tourism industry in all GBA destinations, but also demonstrate the immense potential for further growth in the GBA tourism market. Meanwhile, moderately negative reviews still point out key areas where the destination needs further improvement, such as service quality and border controls.
(Four) Across all destinations, average monthly visitor satisfaction, as reflected by sentiment scores extracted from reviews, is consistently positive. However, there is variation in daily satisfaction levels, indicating that the experience can vary from day to day. There are also notable differences in satisfaction with different tourism activities.
GBA-TDFP helps simplify the process for policymakers and industry leaders. “If” Scenario analysis for tourism demand forecasting. Via her web browser, a user can enter hypothetical values for decision variables (such as GDP or price level), which are then incorporated into an estimated econometric model to generate scenario forecasts. This feature is considered particularly valuable for policy evaluation and decision-making purposes.
As technology advances, destinations and visitors are becoming increasingly dependent on information and communication technology. By integrating cloud computing, big data, and artificial intelligence technologies with advanced forecasting techniques, GBA-TDFP provides innovative insights and valuable guidance to both industry professionals and academics, generating a huge amount of effectively transform data into actionable information, empowering stakeholders to make informed decisions, and maximizing the value they derive from it.
Professor Kay Chong, SHTM Dean, Professor, Walter and Wendy Kwok Family Foundation Professor of International Hospitality ManagementSaid, This is another contribution our school has made to the tourism industry. We are committed to bringing cutting-edge research results into business practice, thereby addressing the global challenges facing the tourism industry.
About PolyU Hotel Tourism Management School
Over 45 years, the Hong Kong Polytechnic University School of Hotel and Tourism Management (SHTM) has honed a unique vision of hospitality and tourism education to become the world's leading hotel and tourism school. Ranked first in the world in the “Hospitality and Tourism Management” category for seven consecutive years in ShanghaiRanking's 2023 Academic Subject World Rankings. In 2022/2023, it was ranked first in the world for the sixth consecutive year in the “Commerce, Management, Tourism, and Services'' category of university rankings based on academic performance. The 2017 CWUR Subject Ranking ranked us number 1 in the world in the subject area of ”Hospitality, Leisure, Sports and Tourism”. Ranked second in the world among university-based programs in the field of 'Hospitality and Leisure Management' in the 2023 QS Thematic World University Rankings for the seventh consecutive year, SHTM is a symbol of excellence in this field. , embodies the results.motto of First class hospitality and tourism.
Our school is driven by the need to contribute to industry and the academic community through the advancement of education and the dissemination of knowledge. With a strong international team of 90 faculty members from 20 countries and regions around the world, SHTM offers programs from undergraduate to doctoral level. Through Hotel Icon, the school's ground-breaking teaching and research hotel and a key aspect of its paradigm-shifting approach to hospitality and tourism education, SHTM advances teaching, learning and research and inspires a new generation of passionate Inspiring pioneering professionals and establishing ourselves as a leader in the hospitality and tourism industry.
Website: https://www.polyu.edu.hk/shtm/
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