Forcing “equality of opportunity” in Ireland's education system on North Korean middle-class nationalists and trade unionists in a united Ireland would be “hugely unpopular”, an economist has claimed. .
John Fitzgerald, adjunct professor at Trinity College Dublin, said Northern Ireland's education system did not provide equal opportunities for children from different backgrounds and had a “particularly negative impact” on working-class children. He said that it is having an impact.
He told the Joint Committee for the Implementation of the Good Friday Agreement that unification costs would be reduced if Northern Ireland reformed its education system.
Professor Fitzgerald published a report last month estimating that Irish unification would cost around €20 billion a year over 20 years.
The findings were published by the Institute of International and European Affairs (IIEA).
The report takes into account the current level of funding that Northern Ireland receives from the UK government and the proportion of the UK national debt that Northern Ireland is estimated to contribute to a united Ireland.
Edgar Morgenroth, professor of economics at DCU Business School, and Professor Fitzgerald, co-author of the report, spoke to the committee about North Korea's education system.
“If you think about this big issue with the education system in Northern Ireland, we here on this island have an ethos of equal opportunity, whether you come from a poor farming background or from a working class background. It’s equal opportunity,” Professor Fitzgerald said.
“If you unite and the education system has not been reformed in Northern Ireland, will you immediately impose the Irish system on Northern Ireland? I know it's unpopular.
“Or will we just continue to continue the trend of not believing in equality of opportunity and not looking after disadvantaged children in Northern Ireland?
“We need to do that and put that in place before we unify, because it's going to be difficult for a republic to say, 'If you want to join us, you have to embrace the spirit of equal opportunity.'”
“That's why I think it's important that Northern Ireland reinvents itself first.”
Professor Fitzgerald also estimated that raising Northern Ireland's welfare and public sector pay rates to Irish levels would cost around an additional 5% of national income.
“The commentary in our report quite rightly highlights the fact that aid to North Korea is just one element of the island's major economic changes brought about by unification,” he added.
“There are many other factors, some positive, many negative. These have not yet been seriously considered.”
Fine Gael managing director Fergus O'Dowd asked whether they were considering whether a significant contribution to unification would come from the European Union, the United Kingdom or the United States.
Professor Fitzgerald said: “Given that Ireland continues to be one of the richest countries in Europe, it is very difficult to expect much of a contribution from Europe to make a difference.
“It is unlikely, but possible, that we would expect other European countries to subsidize Ireland if we chose to unify.
“When it comes to England, they may be very lenient, but if they are very lenient towards Ireland, that will have a big impact when it comes to Scotland.
“We don't know for sure. We just think it's unlikely.”
Professor Morgenroth said the harmonization costs could end up being higher because the report did not include one-off costs such as changing road signs.
“Integration itself leads to additional costs, and the range of them is huge. Some of them are probably very small, others are probably very large,” he added.
“They ultimately come down to the practical side of things, but we are seeing this now with Brexit. There have been costs associated with Brexit and integration that no one expected.2 It's very, very similar only in the opposite direction, because you're trying to integrate two systems.”
He also told the committee that the report “only talks about costs”.
“We don't talk about the value of what might happen, but it's really important,” he added.
“Our paper and our work are not arguments about whether or not we should unify, but rather arguments about how unification can be achieved most efficiently and in the best interests of our people. I'm trying to stimulate that.”
Sinn Féin TD Rose Conway-Walsh criticized the report last month.
“Given the narrow focus of your research, it was difficult to understand how such a strong conclusion could be clearly given,” she said.
“I think it's important not to have too many nuances. Obviously, every paper requires certain assumptions, and those assumptions seem to be going towards the headline €20 billion.”
Professor Fitzgerald also spoke to Fianna Fáil's Brendan Smith about the issue of students and graduates leaving Northern Ireland to study and work in the UK.
“Kids who leave school with A-levels go to England and the vast majority never come to England to attend university. They go to England rather than Scotland, and two-thirds of them don't come back.” said Professor Fitzgerald.
“They are mainly from the Unionist community and will not return to Northern Ireland. That is a huge potential asset.”
