After months of unrelenting rains that battered the country, analysis of satellite images and weather forecasts offers a glimmer of hope as the country prepares for an end to the deluge. However, even when the rain clouds disappear, the harsh reality of the destruction left behind becomes clear.
A review of various data sources revealed a new trend: the heavy rains that have plagued the country since March are decreasing as May progresses. Significant rainfall reduction is expected by the third week of the month, especially in Nairobi, central and northeastern regions.
According to insights gleaned from Google GraphCast, an AI weather forecasting model, this week from May 8 to May 9 will bring heavy rainfall to several areas including Nairobi, Kiambu, Kajiado and Garissa.
Precipitation in these areas will decrease sharply from an average of 20mm to a minimum of 2.5mm, with some areas becoming completely dry. Rainfall amounts are expected to range from 4mm to 10mm, with locally up to 25mm.
However, this avoidance of rain is not universal. Coastal areas and Nyanza regions are expected to endure heavy rain for the time being, with rainfall expected to range between 6mm and 25mm over the next two weeks.
Supporting our findings, data from reliable sources such as BBC Weather, VentuSky, and Meteox.com are in close agreement, with a general decrease in precipitation across the country ranging from -4mm to 6mm. is predicted between.
Meteox.com predicts that rainfall within the capital, Nairobi, will significantly decrease from May 13 onwards to an average of 4.69 mm from a previous high of over 40 mm. Forecasts show a gradual decline in precipitation, ranging from 4.4mm on May 13th to a minimum of 2.5mm on May 24th.
The Kenya Meteorological Department echoed these sentiments, indicating that although certain areas may continue to receive rainfall, overall rainfall is expected to decrease in the second half of the forecast period.
Despite this, the threat of heavy rain is creeping into various parts of the country, including the Great Rift Valley, Lake Victoria Basin and low-lying areas of the southeast.
As the rains subside and there is a glimmer of hope, the country faces the harsh reality of the devastation caused by flooding.
Government statistics paint a grim picture, with more than 250 lives lost, 293,661 people affected and 54,837 households displaced.
In addition, 61 health facilities in 11 counties were damaged and crops on approximately 9,816 acres of land were destroyed. 44 cholera cases have been reported so far.
In addition to the human toll, the devastating floods have taken a toll on Kenya's agricultural sector and livestock population. A government report reveals the harsh reality that more than 4,000 livestock died as a direct result of the flooding.
In addition, large tracts of farmland have been flooded, destroying more than 7,500 acres of crops, further exacerbating the economic hardship faced by rural communities. With crops submerged in water or washed away by torrential rains, farmers grapple with looming food security threats and the loss of income and livelihoods.
Kenya Red Cross volunteers are on a boat mission to help flood victims in Kenya.
Kenya Red Cross Society
Government spokesperson Isaac Mwaura on Wednesday, May 8, noted the deep-rooted nature of the flooding crisis, with heavy rain and thunderstorms forecast to continue in 31 counties over the next few days leading into the weekend.
Areas affected will be the Lake Victoria Basin, Rift Valley, central and eastern regions, with scattered rainfall expected in coastal areas such as Nairobi, Tana River, Kwale, Mombasa, Kilifi and Lamu counties.
Mwaura said 192 dams were at high risk of failure and 33 counties had 178 high-risk dams and reservoirs.
Mwaura further highlighted the continuing threat posed by the rising waters of Lake Victoria and Lake Baringo, which continue to inundate surrounding areas and exacerbate the flood crisis in their respective catchments.
The flooding of major dams such as the Seven Forks Dam in the central region has further increased the risk of flooding, especially in Tana Delta, Garissa, Tana River and Lamu counties.
Screenshot of rain forecast for Tuesday, May 14, 2024.
photograph
Google Graphcast
