According to official data, the two most populous counties are projected to record the highest population growth over the next 20 years, despite having lower birth rates, and in some areas will outpace other counties with comparable populations. exceeds.
Nairobi and Kiambu are the only counties with fertility rates (number of infants per mother) of 2.6 and 2.9, respectively, below the national average of 3.4, and are each estimated to record population growth of more than 1 million people by 2045. It is.
Analysis of the data revealed large differences in growth rates between regions with similar populations, highlighting an increasing trend in small households in the Mt Kenya and Gusii regions, and Politicians are concerned.
For example, Kisii and Naroku have comparable populations, but Naroku is projected to have four times as many people as Kisii by 2045.
Similarly, although the two regions' populations are currently comparable, Wajir's population will increase three times as much as Nyeri's within the forecast period.
Similarly, while Nyamira and West Pokot have roughly equal populations, the estimated growth rate for Rift Valley District is six times that of Nyanza Region.
The projections explain growing concern over slowing population growth in Mount Kenya, which has some leaders offering gifts to mothers with newborns. On Monday, Vice President Ligati Gachagua presented Sh50,000 to the mother who gave birth to the baby as a token of appreciation.
“I have seen mothers with newborn babies. Please bring your baby with you, give them something to buy milk. We want to encourage the mothers,” said Gachagua, a resident of Nyahururu district in Laikipia district. He spoke in Nyahururu where he commissioned an ultra-modern mother and baby unit at the referral hospital.
Nairobi and Kiambu are projected to grow by an additional 2.3 million people by 2045, representing 13% of the estimated 17.8 million births over the next 20 years.
Mombasa is also one of the more populous regions expected to record higher growth despite having a low total fertility rate (TFR) of 2.9.
According to projections by the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics, the 14 counties together are expected to add an additional 9.9 million people by 2045, representing more than half of the projected population growth.
TFR refers to the average number of children a woman would have by the end of her childbearing years if she had children at her current age-specific fertility rate. Age-specific fertility rates are calculated for the three years prior to the survey, based on the detailed pregnancy history provided by the woman.
According to the 2022 Kenya Demographic and Health Survey for women aged 15-49, the current TFR is 3.4, down from 3.9 reported in the 2014 KDHS.
The country's population is expected to grow over the forecast period, with only Nairobi (1, 351, 824) and Kiambu (1, 013, 848) projected to grow by more than 1 million people.
Other regions recording the highest increase in absolute numbers are Nakuru (975, 352), Narok (789, 885), Migori (640, 507), Kakamega (616, 606), Turkana (603, 813), Kilifi ( 607, 561).
Kajiado (595, 739), Kwale (558, 465), Mandela (557, 855), Wajir (514, 753) and Homa Bey (501, 213) are also in the league. His TFR in all these counties ranges from 3.4 to 6.8. However, the top six counties expected to have the highest population ratios are Samburu, Tana River, Narok, Lamu, Wajir and Turkana. TFR ranges from 4.6 to 6.8. The population of Samburu is expected to grow by 65% during the forecast period.
The counties with the highest birth rates are Mandera (7.7), West Pokot (6.9), Wajir (6.8) and Marsabit (6.3). Conversely, the districts predicted to experience the least population growth are Nyamira (60, 651) and Tharaka Niti (74, 956). ), Taita Taveta (88, 725), Vihiga (85, 310)
Other areas with the lowest population growth rates are Kirinyaga (101, 336), Lamu (101, 620), Embu (111, 374), Elgeyo Marakwet (120, 409), Nyeri (158, 132), and Isiolo (164). , 163), Kisii (177, 370).
The slow growth in most of these high TFR regions is due to small populations. However, outliers are densely populated areas with TFR below the national average, such as Kisii (3), Kirinyaga (2.8), Nyeri (3.1), Embu (3.1) and Nyamira (2.7). These regions are projected to grow faster than regions with comparable populations today.
The counties with the lowest TFR are Nairobi City (2.6), Nyamira (2.7), Machakos (2.8), Kirinyaga (2.8), Mombasa (2.9) and Kiambu (2.9).
In the 2022 survey, the decline in Kenya's birth rate became noticeable. TFR declined sharply between 1989 and 1998 (from 6.7 children per woman to 4.7 children per woman).
In 2003, the birth rate increased slightly to 4.9 children per woman. TFR subsequently declined to 3.9 in 2014 and 3.4 in 2022. Similar trends were observed for women in rural areas (7.1 in 1989 → 3.4 in 2022) and urban areas (4.5 in 1989 → 2.8 in 2022).
Over the years, fertility levels have been declining across age cohorts. On average, rural women have 1.1 more children than urban women (3.9 vs. 2.8).
Additionally, rural women aged 40 to 49 have an average of 4.8 children, compared to 3.4 for urban women.
The number of children a woman has is determined by many factors, including the age at which she begins childbearing, the interval between births, and her reproductive potential.
Delaying first birth and increasing birth spacing are contributing to declining birth rates in many countries.
These factors also have a positive impact on health. In contrast, a short birth interval of less than 24 months can have adverse outcomes for both the newborn and its mother, including premature birth, low birth weight, and death.
Giving birth at a very young age is associated with an increased risk of complications during pregnancy and childbirth, and increased neonatal mortality.
According to the KNBS report, TFR decreases with increasing education level, from 6.3 children for women with no education to 2.8 children for women with secondary or higher education. .
TFR also decreases with increasing wealth quintile, from 5.3 children for women in the lowest wealth quintile to 2.7 children for women in the highest wealth quintile. It has become a person.
The age-specific fertility rate for women aged 15 to 19 is 73 births per 1,000 women. This rate peaks between ages 20 and 24 (179 births per 1,000 women) and then declines, reaching 35 births per 1,000 women between ages 40 and 44.
