The study, published in Nature Climate Change, used machine learning algorithms to predict how Antarctic meteorites would behave under simulated climate conditions. Antarctic meteorites were deposited thousands of years ago on stranded areas of the continent and became embedded in ice. Now they are usually found in “blue ice” areas, pockets where winds expose old ice that appears blue in contrast to the vast white of the continent.
The meteorites are particularly sensitive to temperature, and exposure to the sun can warm their black surfaces, melting the ice beneath them and causing them to sink through the icy surface, the researchers said.
Researchers predict that under all emission scenarios, at least 5,000 meteorites per year will disappear from the Earth's surface. Every tenth of an increase in temperature correlates with the loss of 5,100 to 12,200 meteorites, meaning that in a high emissions scenario, 76 percent of the area currently covered by meteorites would be lost.
This would be a devastating loss for space scientists who prize meteorites, which contain information about the development of the solar system. Since space rocks were formed billions of years ago, they provide important clues about stars, planet formation, and even Earth's geological history.
As a result, researchers say it is important to collect as many such specimens as possible “quickly and purposefully” before they become scientifically inaccessible.
“Efforts to recover Antarctic meteorites need to be accelerated and intensified,” Harry Zecorari, a glaciologist at ETH Zurich's Department of Civil, Environmental and Geoengineering, who led the study, said in a news release. “The loss of Antarctic meteorites is very similar to the loss of data that scientists collect from ice cores collected from disappearing glaciers. When ice cores disappear, so do some of the secrets of the universe. I will do it.”
